【】

Early Thursday morning, Republican candidate for president Donald Trump wrote a cryptic tweet.

It read, "They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT!"

Almost immediately, the title began trending on Twitter and jokes flooded social media, each more confused than the last. But, there is a method to this that's one example of Twitter madness.

Trump is most definitely referring to the United Kingdom's June vote to leave the European Union, and most probably how the results surprised many because polls leading up to the referendum indicated the opposite result.

Clearly, unless he really has gotten into Mr. Robot, Trump sees himself in the same position as the UK residents who wanted to keep their country out of international economic affairs.

But is he correct in this assumption?

Tweet may have been deleted

In the waning hours before that fateful June 23 vote many polls predicted voters would choose to remain.

Ipsos MORI conducted a poll for the Evening Standardand found that 'Remain' was up by four points in a telephone survey of 1,592 people.

Betting markets put 'Remain' up 53.5 percent to 46.5 percent the day before the vote and the forecasting website Elections Etc held that the probability of a 'Remain' victory was 62.3 percent.

But alas, when night fell upon a Britain expecting its continued membership, the final vote turned out a little different. The final number, according to the BBC, was 51.9 percent to leave and 48.1 percent to stay, with a 72.2 percent turnout.

How does that correlate with Trump's current poll standings?

All six general election polls shown on RealClearPolitics.com from the past week have him trailing Clinton. The average spread has Clinton five to six points ahead, but many forecast slimmer margins.

The survey most favorable to Clinton is a YouGov/Economist poll that shows Clinton up by six points. (YouGov incorrectly predicted the Brexit vote by four points.)

The date with the narrowest margin comes from a Los Angeles Timespoll that shows Clinton only up by a single point.

A large difference between the two events is that there were also many polls showing strong support for Brexit in the run up to the vote.

A poll by ORB showed the leave vote with 55 percent of the vote, with 45 percent expecting to vote to remain. And in a Guardian/ICM poll the week before the vote the 'Leave' campaign led with 53 percent to 47 percent for 'Remain'.

Unfortunately for Trump, he does not have polls that reflect the precise opposite result of the current prevailing analysis.

Besides this, there were two other factors often credited with delivering a Brexit vote in the face of incorrect polling: the murder of British lawmaker Jo Cox and the demographics of the voter turnout.

The death of Cox, who was a staunch opponent of leaving the EU, swung voters to and fro in the final days before the vote. Accusations and politicization charged voters and mobilized the 'Leave' camp, according to CNBC.

Additionally, the youth vote upon which 'Remain' rested its hopes did not turn out as forcefully as the older generations. That segment of the population was shown to favor 'Leave' more earnestly and voted as such. Naturally, then, youths blamed olds for isolating their country from the world.

Finally, and not to keep knocking them, but UK pollsters have not had the best track record as of late. In the 2015 general election, 100 percent of polls were incorrect in forecasting who would win.

So, could Trump earn the name Mr. Brexit?

Based off of the thin lead shown in current polling, many of which fall within a normal margin of error, votes for Trump could indeed swing his way.

Additionally, many people have seen a similarity between those who come out to Trump's rallies and the demographic that voted in favor of Brexit. Clinton supporters have consistently been labeled as not having passion for their candidate, at least not in the way Trump's supporters have shown him. That passion could lead to a greater voter turnout for him as happened in June.

If this fills you with anxiety, just keep in mind that fivethirtyeight currently has Clinton at an 88 percent probability of winning the general election. (Just try not to remember how they were wrong about Trump winning the GOP nomination.)

Judging by the uncertain nature of his campaign, the slim polling and the passion of his voters, Trump could certainly become Mr. Brexit.

But, it's only August and anything could happen before November.

最新评论